Future Global Trends: G20 Economic Collaboration – Working with Friends or Enemies?

Collaboration is a word with dual definitions, you can collaborate with a colleague or an enemy, in other words here is an Upside and a Downside. Approximately, $1.9 Trillion have been pledged by 9 of the G20 members. The goal for the G20 is $2.0 trillion. Alone, the US is leading in the spending and is currently pledging over 40 percent of the world’s stimulus. So, when we see headlines that global economies are collaborating to resolve the current economic malaise, is it Upside or Downside for our US taxpayers, US corporations or the US economy?

1. US Economy: The best outcome is G20 agreement on all major points. However, Americans must realize that international relations with the United States have suffered dramatically over the last eight years, primarily due to the actions of the Iraq War. Once solid relationships have been stretched [i.e. Australia, Canada, UK] and strained [i.e. France, Italy, Germany, Spain]. What is finally agreed to in the G20 meeting may avert global protectionism. Meanwhile, adversarial relationships have been stoked by the rise of nationalism [China, North Korea, Russia and Venezuela]. This juncture of limited energy resources, militarism and the rise of nationalism may be a threshold of global war.

2. US Corporations: Fortunately or unfortunately, our world economy is interconnected to provide a global steady state that mandates production, profitability and performance. So the acquisition of strategic resources by China and Russia are warning signs to developed and developing nations. Further manipulation of energy resources and pricing are promoting alternate energy policies in the US.

3. US Taxpayer: The US is a market driven economy and is based on end-user consumption. Middle class America is roughly responsible for two-thirds of the tax revenue generation in this country. At the same time it is also the target for non-regulated credit industry, toxic assets and receives the major impact of unemployment, foreclosures and bankruptcy. The US population is aging and the new taxes required to maintain new expenditures will have an impact on every age group. The dilemma of the Obama administration is the targeting of taxation to minimize the perceived burden on any one group and at the same time pay for massive guarantees and bailouts.


Perspectives by Stakeholders
1. Global Banks and Financial Institutions - First, they are obliged to adhere to host country laws and regulations. This is a critical issue being discussed at the G20 conference, which Global Banks do not want to have standardized or institutionalized regulations across borders. Second, since they have a global perspective, they have no allegiance to any specific country. They are not tethered to a specific citizenship. These Global Banks will be the influencers to the decision-makers at the G20 conference.

2. G20 Governments - Their views will be aligned to country borders, territories, laws, regulations, and monetary policies with a parochial view on their economies.

3. Central Banks - Specifically, the EU Central Bank has not proactive like Canada, UK, and the US banks. Where central banks have dramatically lowered their rates in 2008, the EU Central bank has not lowered its rates. Any change in EU policy will have little affect in 2009 and commitments and pledges are still forthcoming for 2010.

4. US Congress - New or amended laws for regulations, NAFTA and other international agreements with protectionist amendments, labor restrictions, new taxation, provisions mandated by the stimulus packages, other protectionist issues may be generated.

5. US Taxpayers – Banking decisions to market high-risk instruments created a problematic scenario to US taxpayers that will extend for generations, impact to the future economic growth will be a key issue, but the need for new taxes may offset any potential middle class help for education, health insurance and retirement.

Who will be the Winners and Losers?
Based on the final agreement and country specific actions that must be initialized and implemented, the outcomes will vary, independently, but as an aggregate, provide the momentum to move out of this downturn towards a managed state of recovery. What are the most probable outcomes for the Beneficiaries and the Benefactors?

Beneficiaries
1. Non-participatory G20 Members – non-participation will be rewarded through insurance and bank stimuli packages in the US

2. Totally Engaged G20 Members – our closest allies, although apparently distant, will blame the US for this debacle

3. Luke Warm G20 Participation – similar to non-contributing members, their behavior will also be rewarded by US efforts and their own

4. Hostile G20 Members – China, France and Russia will contribute conditionally, although they may exceed minimum amounts; however, those contributions may be interrupted primarily based on their nationalistic policies and objectives

5. Totally Engaged Central Banks – successful synergy between these engaged countries will be the driving engine to pull the global economy into a working state; these member states may also be the first countries which will reap rewards quicker

6. Luke Warm Central Banks – this group of banks will be seen as quickly following the engaged banks without the political commitment

7. Hostile Central Banks - even with disregard to stimulating the global economy, their meager involvement will be rewarded by major countries action

8. Financial and Multi National Corporations: Mal-executives circumventing legal ramifications, executive skills are spun as strategic assets to chart new economic paths

Benefactors
1. US Taxpayer – large sums of monies, never before laid on the backs of taxpayers, have created such a burden that taxpayers will be paying off this indebtedness for generations

2. Proactive Central Banks - toxic assets have placed bank’s allowable reserves at risk causing paralyzed lending behavior and cash constriction in the global economies

3. US Misguided Stimulus Policy – resources dedicated to the underpinnings of the economy may have been allocated to earmarks that do not affect growth and continued job creation

4. US Government – actions to print money and dump large amounts of bonds on the market may cause hyper-inflation

5. US Image - the US brand for honesty, integrity and principles are once again tainted by poor or non-existent policies, rash decision-making or no enforcement of controls on the Financial Sector


Who is the G20?
Group of Twenty Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, or commonly know as the G20, are finance ministers and bank governors from the top 19 countries and the EU [European Union]. This group of nation states controls approximately 85 percent of the world’s economy, measured in GDP, and about 80 percent of the world trade.

The G20 group is a forum that focuses its attention on international stability. This collaborative and cooperative group promotes policies, studies and reviews that encourage dialogue and resolution of issues between key industrial countries and emerging market countries.

G20 Issues - Official Agenda to be promoted
1. Reviving the World Economy
2. Restore Lending
3. Tougher Rules for the Banks
4. Expanded Role for the IMF
5. More Help for Developing Countries

Pledging Variations
During this current economic downturn, many Non-participatory G20 countries that have not pledged a stimulus package or have not publicly divulged their economic stimulus / targets. Most notably is the absence of Saudia Arabia’s participation in pledging monies for a stimulus package. Others who have not divulged their pledges include:
1. Argentina
2. Australia
3. Brazil
4. India
5. Indonesia
6. South Korea
7. Mexico
8. Saudia Arabia
9. South Africa
10. Turkey
11. European Union [Note that some EU members have contributed separately and that the aggregate size of the EU is comparable to the US. On the eve of the G20 meeting, the EU members of France, Italy, Germany and UK represent 17 percent of the total pledges; whereas, the US comprises over 41 percent.]

Luke Warm G20 Participation – those countries contributing below the suggested IMF goal of 2 percent of GDP. Pledging billions to their respective economies but failing to meet the suggested level of 2 percent of heir respective economy’s GDP.
1. Canada 31.0B – 1.5%
2. France 35.0B – 1.3
3. Italy 08.9B – 0.4
4. UK 30.0B – 1.0

Totally Engaged G20 Members are those countries contributing above the suggested IMF goal of 2 percent of GDP. It should be noted that Germany is the only country that will not contributed more than what is pledged at this time. It may be political banter, but historically, Germany still remembers the consequences of hyperinflation in pre World War II.
1. China 586B – 13.3%
2. Germany 257B – 2.5
3. Japan 124B – 2.6
4. Russia 47B – 16.5
5. US 787B – 5.5


Scenario Outcomes
Potential Downsides of the G20
1. G20 failure to Agree on Funding, Direction, and Timing of World Stimulus Packages
2. China’s push for another world monetary standard is agreed to and accepted
3. Doors are created to permit protectionist policies around the world
4. The G20 does not agree on international banking regulations
5. G20 policies are too vague or too strict and usher acceleration of social upheaval and world-wide war
6. If a consensus is not reached, world markets will interpret the disagreement as negative and markets will decline

Potential Upsides of the G20
1. China and other new countries contribute to the IMF
2. G20 agrees on Funding, Direction, and Timing of World Stimulus Packages
3. China’s push for another world monetary standard is rejected
4. Protectionist policies and are immobilized
5. G20 agrees unanimously on international banking regulations
6. If a consensus is reached and additional action items proclaimed, especially in regulating global financial markets and the banking industry, positive response will be a resuscitation of global markets

External Influencers to the G20
1. The United Nations has encouraged a goal of $1 Trillion Dollars to be invested in poor countries.
2. The IMF recommended that G20 countries contribute 2 percent of their GDP for stimulation of the World Economy.
3. IMF Managing Director, Dominique Straliss-Kahn recently warned that G20 inaction could lead to dramatic social upheaval and war.
4. Italy, France and Germany did not provide stimulus funds in 2008.

Other G20 Issues of Potential Disagreement
1. Single Issue of Import - Avoiding Protectionism, many experts believe the Great Depression was invoked or extended due to protectionist policies
2. European Union and the US not working together or closely would be reminiscent of contra policies in 1930’s
3. China’s desire to create an alternative international currency [Yuan] and model a “EU – China – US” global model could cause confusion and risk
4. Failure to pass and establish legal and regulatory controls over the Financail Industry that would prevent future economic panics. However, if Depression history repeats itself and should laws and regulations not be adopted by the global community.
5. Potential threat to each country: Impact of new banking regulations and laws will abrogate sovereign laws and authority.
6. New Visibility: Passage of new laws must include transparency in banking behavior, globally.


What this means to America?

US Economy
Potential Upside: Should allies agree to the basic understanding of supporting the five G20 issues, we could sustained and coordinated economic growth that could bring the world recession to an end. At the core of this scenario, lending would be restored and inject much needed capital into all economies. A G20 consensus to regulating banking and other financail institutions could also reign in their maverick behavior and ensure stable business practices. The US is a major contributor to the IMF and other new contributors will help share the burden for development in third world emerging market economies.

Potential Downside: A failure to attain a consensus on reviving the world economy, restoring lending and implementing tougher rules on banks would drive the economy into a catastrophic depression, social unrest and possibly war. At no time since the Great Depression, has the world been on precipice that could very well bring the world economy to a halt. Should expansion of the IMF also fail, those countries already committed to the idea will maintain expansion of third world markets. The burden to the US would not be lifted and weigh heavily on already expanded commitments to reset the economy.

US Corporations
Potential Upside: G20 agreements to all non-banking industries would signal new commercial opportunities, globally. Resurgence in lending will allow activity and possible expansion of business into already planned areas of interest. Coordinated stimulus activities could have a synergistic effect on the US economy and boost employment and commercial output. Industries that could quickly benefit are: banks, construction, heavy equipment makers, Internet, IT, import/export and steel industries.

Potential Downside: Business opportunities would be limited or eliminated if G20 deadlocks or disputes over stimulus packages, their amounts, timing of implementation or other injections of political or economic constraints would hamper US efforts to restart the American economy. After effects could be continued unemployment, economic stagnation, and possible rise for protectionism. The impact on US corporations and small business will continue to spiral the economy downward and strain profitability and growth.

US Taxpayers
Potential Upside: Given the scenario of successful G20 initiatives and agreement to implement those packages in a timely manner, regulate banks, avoid protectionism in an atmosphere of consensus, the US Taxpayers may have a glimmer of hop and optimism. In addition, the US middle class incomes over the past eight years have been stagnating. The US middle class incomes have not increased and have been flat during that same time. Current pending legislation and federal government budgets are redirecting taxation and alleviating the “war on the middle class”. Stimulating the economy is planned to increase production and employment.

Potential Downside: Currently the debt burden on the US taxpayer has gained the highest indebtedness in US history. Funding of Tarp 1 and 2, AIG, Toxic Assets removal, Stimulus package and funding for the auto industry are substantial long-term costs, all which are situated in the wallets of the US taxpayer. Should disagreement and disconnection develop in the G20 meeting, anticipate further massive stimulus packages that could bankrupt the treasury. In turn, those massive layouts could foment social, political and economic unrest in the US.

Next Blog: Future Global Trends: G20 Economic Collaboration – What Outcomes?
Source: Jarvis Business Solutions, LLC, © 2009, www.jbshq.com

Change Now and Reap Rewards – Part 2 of 3: Five P's of Marketing – Plus Seven!

“That is, the firm must become a hotbed of tests of the unconventional. It must become an experimenting (and learning), adaptive, change-seeking organization.”

Source: Dr.Tom Peters, Thriving on Chaos, 1987


In the 1960’s a marketing paradigm was created and later became the foundation of many major industrial corporations. They built their approaches to Sales and Marketing on this concept. That was known as the Five P‘s of Marketing. To this day many of these identified elements are still being utilized [albeit in metamorphosed monikers]. Those elements originally included:

1. Product - the product or service that is offered to the customer
2. Price - pricing strategies with the goal of meeting a desired profit margin or costing structure
3. Place (think distribution) – availability and convenience of the product/service to your target market
4. Promotion - communication and endorsement of your product/service to a customer
5. People - service marketing and the level of customer service you provide to your customer


So in today’s world economy, are you adapting, learning to improve and seek new opportunities in a changing marketplace? Are your customer strategies focused on change, improvement or transformation of your business model? Do you really know your customers? Here are a few questions to consider that could modify your awareness of your customer base:

1. Do you have a process that introduces innovation? That can be refined and improved to produce higher results, such as efficiency, profitability, performance or productivity?
2. Do you have a product profile that reflects features, characteristics or value added features that your customer base would want and do they repeat their experience with your product or your competitiors?
3. Have you designed a proof of concept to flush out the marketing and production costs, realization of enhanced features and characteristics, positioning against the competition, and estimation of potential sales volume?
4. Are you servicing your customers in a timely manner? What regions are served better than others and why?
5. Do you treat your customers like numbers or do you have relationships established to promote growth and customer satisfaction?
6. Are credit issues decreasing your sales? If so, have you reviewed your credit policy or considered alternatives to existing procedures [i.e., discounts for cash purchases, extending your DSO targets, evaluated your pricing structure, do you have a high price strategy vs low cost, do you know your margin thresholds on those strategies, etc.]?
7. Have you actually quantified these product and customer parameters to better determine your strengths as well as your weaknesses?

If you answered “yes” to any of these questions, perhaps you need to explore the “Five Plus” elements to improved customer awareness, improve profitability, and impact your performance. JBS provides five additional areas that help refine your Sales and Marketing processes that interact with your customer base.

Next Blog: Let’s focus on your internal support of your customers. Remember, their perceptions of product value and services provide the success to your organization, continued survivability.

Source: Jarvis Business Solutions, LLC, © 2009, www.jbshq.com

Change Now and Reap Rewards – Part 1 of 3

PRINCIPLE’S NOTE: In today's business climate, the emphasis is on survival. Change is sourced from internal innovation, processes and procedures or from external influencers such as interest rates, competition or limited resources. As a leader, you have lemons in your enterprise and you need to make lemonade from them. In other words, you have an opportunity to take the next step in optimizing your organization and produce tangible rewards. JBS provides transformation solutions for business, IT and government arenas, from concept to reality, through people, ideas and technology.

Note that additional collateral is available for free download from the web site. Please feel free to pass along this information, to colleagues, you feel could benefit from our services and solutions. We also have over 50 free links of specialized web sites that provide policy direction from think tanks, sustainability issues, US and international initiatives, and various out-of-the-box thinking. Please browse these repositories and feel free to bookmark those of importance.

Part 1: The Approach During a Recession
Especially in today’s business environment, adaptability is a key characteristic of any successful business. That adaptability is also a reflection of the leadership of the company to be flexible during difficult times.

"In my view, adaptability is about managing your portfolio of businesses effectively, scanning the horizon for opportunities that may arise, and making decisions on a continuous basis about which of your businesses is best suited for carrying out a given activity."
Source: Ralph Norris, CEO, Commonwealth Bank of Australia

External recession strategies for business: Simply think strategically, but execute tactically and adjust to the government, market and industry signals. Now is the perfect time to consider when that adaptability injects change it then can create opportunities for improvement, efficiency and productivity by refining your strategic thinking. Consider these external strategies:

1. Work with your investors [bankers, VCs, family, etc.] and share your recession strategies. Look for their endorsement and elicit their suggestions. Recognize that their buy-in may provide a bridge for future funds.

2. Investment and acquisition opportunities are more prevalent in a recession. Competitors may want to shed portfolios or product lines that would enhance and boost your core business.

3. Find out what are key satisfiers for your customers. Go out meet with your key customers, send out surveys, build relationships that provide insight.

4. What are existing competitive substitutions for your products and services? What are the startups that provide new approach that is faster, better, cheaper?

5. Look for business values that refine your product and service value. Look across industries where more value for less is apparent. Copy their success, but don't sacrifice yours.

6. Look for alternatives to enhance your product or service lines by providing cheaper, less complex solutions.

7. Create new opportunities through networking your partners, suppliers, competitors and investors.

8. Go beyond the contract and handshake. Go beyond what you promise, build relationships and beat out the competition.


Internal recession strategies for business: Don’t be myopic and overlook opportunities internally. This is a time to pursue internal transformations, as well. Also, some of these seem they should be external points, but the defining characteristic is that those points originate within the company culture and internal mindset. Here are internal strategies to consider and promote sustainability:

1. Every customer is a diamond in the rough, potentially precious. Take GOOD care of each of them, especially the repeat customer.

2. Reevaluate your entire pricing structure. Maintain your margins by market testing increase or decrease pricing strategies.

3. Don't rely solely on the web. Be proactive and meet the people loyal to your products and services.

4. Evaluate your core business needs. Assess and increase its value. Don't loose your focus.

5. Managing resources are important and employees are usually the key resource often overlooked. Keep your employees in the communication loop regarding change and how the change process will be implemented.

6. Know your strategic value to the market. Do you provide products and services on cost, quality, flexibility, service timeliness, partner relationship or other areas?

7. A recession is an opportunity to increase the quality of your human resources. Hire quality people for open requirements. Be methodical. Take you time in assessing the candidates. Make the best decision for your company. Remember, change can be a catalyst to improve your organization and morale.

8. Refinement and prototyping extend your knowledge on how your business can be improved. During a recession, your efforts can quickly pay-off when the market opens up, when cost reductions are replaced with productivity, or when new product or service introductions have been postponed to take advantage of the uptick.

9. Cash flow is the heart beat of your company. Monitor it. Keep you accounts receivable, timely, current and limit bad debts.

10. Cost reduction is important in a recession, but understand the consequences. Know where to reduce. Look for efficiencies in processes. Increase your productivity through reduced costs, but recognize the downsides.

11. Look for strategic investments for they may get a price break during a recession. Focus on new processes, equipment or technology that produces efficiencies, productivity, quality and cost reduction. More importantly, recognize the project implementation’s lead-time and plan accordingly. Don’t rush into a quick fix or cause stress your organization cannot handle.

Next Blog: Let’s focus on your customer’s perspective. They are key to your survival and success. Survivability, in part, is due to your market presence and the value your products and services provide to your customer.

Source: Jarvis Business Solutions, LLC, © 2009, For services: www.jbshq.com